推薦產(chǎn)品
3-(4-chlorophenyl)-4-phenyl-4,5-dihydro-1H-pyrazole 2-(chloromethyl)-3-methylpyridinehydrochloride 1-(2-bromo-4-methylphenyl)ethanone 3-chloroisoquinoline-4-carbonitrile 5,8-dichloropyrido[3,2-d]pyridazine 2-bromomalononitrile 2-(4-(bromomethyl)phenyl)benzo[d]thiazole 1-(bromomethyl)-3-methoxy-2-nitrobenzene 6-bromo-1H-[1,2,3]triazolo[4,5-b]pyridine 4-iodo-2-((trimethylsilyloxy)methyl)thiazole 6-iodoimidazo[1,2-a]pyridine-3-carbonitrile 2-(4-chlorophenyl)-2-morpholinoacetonitrile 4-chloro-7H-pyrrolo[2,3-d]pyrimidine 4-chloroisothiazole 5-bromo-6-chloro-1H-indole 7-chloro-3H-imidazo[4,5-b]pyridine ethyl3-(4-formylphenyl)propanoate 2,3-dibromobenzaldehyde 1-(5H-chromeno[2,3-b]pyridin-7-yl)ethanone 5H-chromeno[2,3-b]pyridin-5-one 3-chloroisoquinoline-4-carbaldehyde (E)-2-(3-oxoprop-1-enyl)benzaldehyde methyl4-formyl-3-nitrobenzoate 5,6-dimethoxy-2,2-dimethyl-2,3-dihydro-1H-inden-1-one 1-methylbicyclo[4.1.0]heptan-3-one 3-nitro-4-(trifluoromethoxy)benzaldehyde 2-hydroxyquinoline-6-carbaldehyde 2-nitro-3-(trifluoromethyl)benzaldehyde 1-(2-fluoro-4-methoxyphenyl)propan-2-one tert-butyl3-fluoro-4-oxopiperidine-1-carboxylate tert-butyl3-oxopropylcarbamate 2,2-dimethylcyclohexanone 9H-carbazole-3-carbaldehyde N,N-dimethyl-2-oxoacetamide 2-methylpent-4-yn-2-ol 3-tert-butyl-4-hydroxybenzonitrile 4-bromo-2-tert-butylphenol 1,3-dibutoxypropan-2-ol methyl4-hydroxyquinoline-6-carboxylate methyl3-cyano-4-hydroxybenzoate 4-chloro-6-methoxyquinolin-7-ol 3,4-dihydro-2H-benzo[b][1,4]oxazin-7-ol 2-(2-aminothiazol-5-yl)ethanolhydrochloride (R)-ethyl2-chloropropanoate (S)-4-amino-5-(4,4-dimethylcyclohexylamino)-5-oxopentanoicacid (1s,4s)-4-hydroxycyclohexanecarboxylicacid (S)-2-(tetrahydrofuran-3-yloxy)aceticacid (1S,4R)-1-methyl-4-(prop-1-en-2-yl)cyclohex-2-enol (R)-4-(hydroxymethyl)oxazolidin-2-one (S)-4-(hydroxymethyl)oxazolidin-2-one 化工資訊 來(lái)兩年MDI主要的擴(kuò)產(chǎn)就是萬(wàn)華八角項(xiàng)目、BASF重慶項(xiàng)目和中東阿美項(xiàng)目,由于擴(kuò)產(chǎn)幅度很大,因此市場(chǎng)普遍擔(dān)心MDI價(jià)格會(huì)出現(xiàn)下臺(tái)階式的下跌,萬(wàn)華的八角項(xiàng)目盈利能力也會(huì)大幅低于預(yù)期。但我們分析認(rèn)為萬(wàn)華的成本優(yōu)勢(shì)非常明顯,單噸成本比BASF低6048元,比中東項(xiàng)目低5414元,八角園項(xiàng)目盈利大概率會(huì)超市場(chǎng)預(yù)期。
投資成本比較:萬(wàn)華80萬(wàn)噸MDI總計(jì)投資為80億元,單噸投資為1萬(wàn)元/噸,噸折舊為667元/噸;重慶BASF項(xiàng)目40萬(wàn)噸MDI產(chǎn)能投資80億元,單噸折舊為1667元;中東項(xiàng)目為一體化裝置,包括40萬(wàn)噸MDI和20萬(wàn)噸TDI等,實(shí)際投資估計(jì)將達(dá)到300億美元。較國(guó)內(nèi)建設(shè)同類(lèi)項(xiàng)目的成本高7倍以上,因此我們認(rèn)為中東項(xiàng)目單噸折舊為4669元;l能耗比較:萬(wàn)華MDI項(xiàng)目基本能源是煤炭,其單噸MDI所需的原料煤量為1.1噸,動(dòng)力煤為1.4噸,按照目前山東地區(qū)動(dòng)力煤價(jià)格測(cè)算,成本為1000元/噸。而B(niǎo)ASF重慶項(xiàng)目和沙特項(xiàng)目都是以天然氣為原料,單噸MDI所需原料氣為750方,能耗氣為1050方,依照重慶氣價(jià)3.36元/方和中東氣價(jià)0.34元/方,則重慶和沙特的單噸能耗成本為6048元和612元。
人工成本比較:萬(wàn)華單噸MDI對(duì)應(yīng)的人工成本為900元左右,占比約為4.5%。由于BASF同在國(guó)內(nèi),我們預(yù)測(cè)其單噸人工成本與萬(wàn)華接近,但沙特由于主要是以外籍勞工為主,因此成本依照歷史規(guī)律應(yīng)該是萬(wàn)華的3倍左右,即2700元左右。
財(cái)務(wù)預(yù)測(cè)與投資建議。綜上,無(wú)論是重慶BASF還是沙特MDI項(xiàng)目成本均遠(yuǎn)高于萬(wàn)華八角園,因此即使投產(chǎn),對(duì)萬(wàn)華MDI的盈利影響也不大。我們預(yù)測(cè)公司2014-2016年EPS為1.38,2.76,3.19元,按照可比公司估值給予2014年17倍PE,目標(biāo)價(jià)23.46元,維持”買(mǎi)入”評(píng)級(jí)。風(fēng)險(xiǎn)提示。八角項(xiàng)目進(jìn)度低于預(yù)期。
